°ÇÃ൵½Ã°ø°£¿¬±¸¼Ò

Architecture & Urban Research Institute

pdf¿ø¹®º¸±â ¿¡·¯ ÇØ°á¹æ¹ý ¹Ù·Î°¡±â



¹®ÇåȨ > ¿¬±¸³í¹® > »ó¼¼

[¿ø¹®º¸±â½Ã ¼ÒºñµÇ´Â Æ÷ÀÎÆ® : 100 Æ÷ÀÎÆ®] ¹Ì¸®º¸±â Àοë

´ëÇѱ¹Åäµµ½Ã°èȹÇÐȸ|±¹Åä°èȹ(³í¹®Áý) 2012³â 6¿ù

³í¹®¸í [³í¹®] ¾ÆÆÄÆ®½ÃÀåÀÇ Áö¿ªº° ´Ü±â¼ö¿ä¿¹Ãø¿¡ °üÇÑ ¿¬±¸ / A study on regional short-term demand forecast in private apartment market - Focusing capital region and five metropolitan cities - / ¼öµµ±Ç°ú 5´ë ±¤¿ª½Ã¸¦ Áß½ÉÀ¸·Î
ÀúÀÚ¸í Á¶¹ÌÁ¤½Äº°ÀúÀÚ ; ±è±¤¼® ; ¹Úȯ¿ë
¹ßÇà»ç ´ëÇѱ¹Åäµµ½Ã°èȹÇÐȸ
¼ö·Ï»çÇ× ±¹Åä°èȹ, v.47 n.3(Åë±Ç 191È£) (2012-06)
ÆäÀÌÁö ½ÃÀÛÆäÀÌÁö(175) ÃÑÆäÀÌÁö(16)
ISSN 12267147
ÁÖÁ¦ºÐ·ù µµ½Ã
ÁÖÁ¦¾î ÁÖÅüö¿ä ; ÁÖÅðø±Þ ; ÁÖÅüö¿äÃßÁ¤¸ðÇü ; ÁÖÅýÃÀå ; ±×·£Àú Àΰú°ü°è°ËÁ¤ ; VAR¸ðÇü ; Housing Demands ; Housing Supply ; Housing Demand Forecasting Method ; Housing Market ; Granger Causality Test ; Vector Autoregressive Model
¿ä¾à2 The aim of this study is to attempt a short-term demand forecast within 1 year and to be reflected on the impacts of the market situation changed on a monthly basis on in quantity apartment demanded as distinguished from the model for medium and long term housing demand forecasting including M-W model. The relation between interest rate, apartment trading volume, sale value volatility in capital area and big 5 metropolitan cities and the sales volume in new apartments establishing the VAR model was analyzed. As a result of the actual analysis, it was judged that interest rate, apartment trading volume and sale value volatility have effect on an estimated sales volume in new apartment. The short-term quantity demanded for each area was predicted by the result value and the apartment supply and the estimated demand volume in new apartment were compared and analyzed. Based on the result of this study, the future short-term quantity demanded will be predicted and it will be used when establishing the short-term supply plan fit for regional characteristic.
¼ÒÀåó ´ëÇѱ¹Åäµµ½Ã°èȹÇÐȸ
¾ð¾î Çѱ¹¾î
ºÐ¼®¼­Áö
µµ½Ã ¹× Áö¿ª°æÁ¦ > ÅäÁö ¹× ÁÖÅà > ÁÖÅÃÀϹÝ

º» ¿¬±¸´Â °Ç¼³¾÷üÀÇ °ø±Þ°èȹ ¼ö¸³ ½Ã È°¿ëÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ÁÖÅà ¼ö¿ä ÃßÁ¤ ¹æ¹ý·ÐÀ» Á¦½ÃÇÏ°í ÇâÈÄ Áö¿ªº°·Î ÁÖÅüö¿ä°¡ ¾î¶»°Ô º¯È­ÇÒ °ÍÀÎÁö¿¡ °üÇÑ ¼ö¿ä ¿¹ÃøÀ» ½ÃµµÇØ º¸°íÀÚ ÇÏ¿´´Ù. À̸¦ À§ÇØ ¼öµµ±Ç°ú 5´ë ±¤¿ª½ÃÀÇ ±Ý¸®, ¾ÆÆÄÆ® °Å·¡·®, ¸Å¸Å°¡º¯µ¿·ü°ú ½Å±Ô¾ÆÆÄÆ® ÆǸŷ®°úÀÇ °ü°è¸¦ VAR ¸ðÇüÀ¸·Î ±¸ÃàÇÏ¿© ºÐ¼®ÇÏ°í °¢ Áö¿ªº° ´Ü±âÀûÀÎ ¼ö¿ä·®À» ¿¹ÃøÇØ º¸¾Ò´Ù. ¶Ç °¢ Áö¿ªº° ¾ÆÆÄÆ® °ø±Þ·®°ú ºñ±³ÇÏ¿© ¼ö±Þ Â÷À̸¦ µµÃâÇÏ¿´´Ù.
¡á Ãßõ¹®Çå (ÀÌ ¹®Çå°ú °°ÀÌ º» ¹®Çå)
[³í¹®] ¾ÆÆÄÆ® ºÐ¾ç¼º Æò°¡ÁöÇ¥ °³¹ß¿¡ °üÇÑ ¿¬±¸
Á¶¹ÌÁ¤ ; ±è±¤¼® ; ¹Úȯ¿ë ; À̸íÈÆ - ±¹Åä°èȹ : v.48 n.3(Åë±Ç 198È£) (201306)
ÁÖÅüö¿ä ÃßÁ¤À» ÅëÇÑ ÇâÈÄ ÁÖÅüö±Þ Àü¸Á
Ȳ±Ô¿Ï ; ¹ÚÀº°æ - Issue Report : n.8 (201011)
[½Ã·Ð] 4Â÷ »ê¾÷Çõ¸í ½Ã´ë, °ÇÃàÀÇ ´ëÀÀ
À̸í½Ä(Lee, Myung-Sik) - °ÇÃà(´ëÇÑ°ÇÃàÇÐȸÁö) : Vol.61 No.05 (201705)
°øµ¿ÁÖÅÃÀÇ ºÐ¾ç°¡ °áÁ¤À» À§ÇÑ ¿µÇâ¿äÀÎ µµÃâ ¹× Áß¿äµµ ºÐ¼®
¾ç¿ÁÈñ(Yang, Ok-Hee) ; ±è¹Î¼®(Kim, Min-Seok) ; Ȳ¿í¼±(Hwang, Uk-Sun) ; ±è¿ë¼ö(Kim, Yong-Su) - Çѱ¹°Ç¼³°ü¸®ÇÐȸ ³í¹®Áý : Vol.12 No.5 (201109)
¾ÆÆÄÆ® ¼ö±Þ ¹× °¡°Ý º¯µ¿ÀÌ ¹ÌºÐ¾ç¿¡ ¹ÌÄ¡´Â ¿µÇâ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¼öµµ±Ç ±Ç¿ªº° ½ÇÁõ ºÐ¼®
ÀÌÀÇÁØ ; Ȳ°Ç¿ì ; ±èÁøÈÆ - ¸Þ¸®Ã÷Áõ±Ç ºÎµ¿»ê±ÝÀ¶³í¹® Çö»ó°ø¸ðÀü ¼ö»óÀÛ ¸ðÀ½Áý : n.3 (201102)
»ó¾÷¿ëÁö ¼ö¿äÃßÁ¤±â¹ý ºñ±³ºÐ¼® ¿¬±¸
ÀÌ»óÁØ ; À±Á¤Áß - LHI Journal : v.3 n.4 (201210)
[³í¹®] Àα¸±¸Á¶ ¹× °¡±¸Æ¯¼º º¯È­¸¦ °í·ÁÇÑ ÁÖÅüö¿äÀÇ ¿¹Ãø
Àü¼º¾Ö ; Çü³²¿ø - ±¹Åä°èȹ : v.47 n.3(Åë±Ç 191È£) (201206)
ºÐ¾ç¾ÆÆÄÆ®ÀÇ Ãʱâ°è¾à·ü °áÁ¤¿äÀο¡ °üÇÑ ¿¬±¸
¹é¹Î¼® ; ½ÅÁ¾Ä¥ - µµ½ÃÇàÁ¤Çк¸(Çѱ¹µµ½ÃÇàÁ¤ÇÐȸ ³í¹®Áý) : v.24 n.1 (201103)
[³í¹®] ÁÖÅüö¿äÀÇ ±Ô¸ðº° ºÐÆ÷ ¿¹Ãø
±èÁØÇü ; õÇö¼÷ ; ±è¹Îö - ±¹Åä°èȹ : v.48 n.2(Åë±Ç 197È£) (201304)
¼Ò±Ô¸ð »ó°¡ ºÐ¾ç°¡ ÇÒÀÎÀ² °áÁ¤ ¸ðÇü -¼­¿ï½Ã ¼Ò±Ô¸ð »ó°¡ÀÇ 1Ãþ ´ëºñ ºÐ¾ç°¡¸¦ Áß½ÉÀ¸·Î-
Á¶¿ë°æ(Cho, Yongkyung); ±èÀçȯ(Jaehwan Kim) - Çѱ¹ÁÖ°Åȯ°æÇÐȸ ³í¹®Áý <ÁÖ°Åȯ°æ> : Vol.18 No.4(Åë±Ç Á¦50È£) (202012)
¡á Á¦ 1 ÀúÀÚÀÇ ´Ù¸¥ ¹®Çå ½Äº°ÀúÀÚ´õº¸±â
Àα¸¼ºÀåÁö¿ª°ú Àα¸¼èÅðÁö¿ªÀÇ ºóÁý ¹ß»ý¿¡ ¹ÌÄ¡´Â ¿µÇâ ¿äÀο¡ °üÇÑ ¿¬±¸
°­¿ë°ï;¹Ú¼ö¾Æ;Á¶¹ÌÁ¤ - µµ½ÃÀç»ý : Vol.9 No.3 (202312)
µµ½Ã°æÀï·Â °­È­¸¦ À§ÇÑ ±¹³» Çϼö󸮽ü³ À¯ÈÞºÎÁö È°¿ë¿¡ °üÇÑ »ç·Ê¿¬±¸
ÀÌÁ¤Èñ(Lee, Jung-Hee) ; Á¶¹ÌÁ¤(Cho, Mi-Jeong) ; À̸íÈÆ(Lee, Myeong-Hun) - Çѱ¹µµ½ÃºÎµ¿»êÇÐȸ ³í¹®Áý : Vol.13 No.1 (202203)
°æÀμ± ¿ª¼¼±Ç ÅäÁöÀÌ¿ë Ư¼º¿¡ °üÇÑ ¿¬±¸
ÀÌÀç¿ø(Lee, Jae-Won) ; Á¶¹ÌÁ¤(Cho, Mi-Jeong) - µµ½ÃÀç»ý : Vol.6 No.3 (202012)
½Å±Ô ÁöÇÏö °³ÅëÀÌ ÁÖº¯ ¾ÆÆÄÆ® °¡°Ý¿¡ ¹ÌÄ¡´Â ¿µÇâ: ÁöÇÏö ¼­Çؼ± ³ë¼±À» »ç·Ê·Î
¸¶Ã¢¿í(Ma, Chang-Uk) ; Á¶¹ÌÁ¤(Cho, mi-jeong) - µµ½ÃÀç»ý : Vol.6 No.2 (202008)
°ø°øÅÃÁö ³» Á¡Æ÷ÁÖÅà °ÅÁÖÀÚ ¸¸Á·µµ ¹× Áß¿äµµ ºÐ¼®: À§·Ê½Åµµ½Ã ¹× û¶ó±¹Á¦µµ½Ã¸¦ Áß½ÉÀ¸·Î
±èÀçÁ¾(Kim, Jae-Jong) ; Á¶¹ÌÁ¤(Cho, Mi-Jeong) - µµ½ÃÀç»ý : Vol.5 No.2 (201912)
ÀçÁ¤ºñÃËÁøÁö±¸ ±¸¿ªº° Á¶ÇÕ¿ø ÀνĿ¡ °üÇÑ ¿¬±¸: Çѳ² ÀçÁ¤ºñÃËÁøÁö±¸¸¦ Áß½ÉÀ¸·Î
½ÉÀ±ÁÖ(Shim, Yun-Joo) ; Á¶¹ÌÁ¤(Cho, Mi-Jeong) - µµ½ÃÀç»ý : Vol.5 No.2 (201912)
AHP¸¦ È°¿ëÇÑ º¹ÇÕ¸®Á¶Æ® ¹æ¹®¿ä¼Ò Áß¿äµµ ºÐ¼®: Àü¹®°¡ ÀνÄÀ» Áß½ÉÀ¸·Î
³²±âÁÖ(Nam, Ki-Ju) ; Á¶¹ÌÁ¤(Cho, Mi-Jeong) - Çѱ¹Áö¿ª°³¹ßÇÐȸÁö : Vol.31 No.5 (201912)
Àα¸±¸Á¶ º¯È­ Ư¼ºÀ» ¹Ý¿µÇÑ Àα¸°¨¼Ò Áö¿ªÀÇ À¯ÇüÈ­¿Í µµ½ÃÃà¼Ò ½ÇÅ ºÐ¼® ¿¬±¸
±è»õÈû(Kim, Sae-Him) ; Á¶¹ÌÁ¤(Cho, Mi-Jeong) - µµ½ÃÀç»ý : Vol.5 No.1 (201906)
Áö±¸´ÜÀ§°èȹ¿ä¼ÒÀÇ Áß¿äµµ ºÐ¼®¿¡ °üÇÑ ¿¬±¸: ȸ±â Áö±¸´ÜÀ§°èȹ±¸¿ªÀ» Áß½ÉÀ¸·Î
±èâÇÑ(Kim, Chang-Han) ; Á¶¹ÌÁ¤(Cho, Mi-Jeong) - µµ½ÃÇàÁ¤Çк¸(Çѱ¹µµ½ÃÇàÁ¤ÇÐȸ ³í¹®Áý) : Vol.32 No.2 (201906)
¼­¿ï½Ã °í±Þ¾ÆÆÄÆ® Áְż±ÅÿäÀÎ Áß¿äµµ ºÐ¼®:³ªÀοø Çѳ²¾ÆÆÄÆ®¸¦ Áß½ÉÀ¸·Î
¿ÀÈ«Áø(Oh, Hong jin) ; Á¶¹ÌÁ¤(Cho, Mi-Jeong) - µµ½ÃÇàÁ¤Çк¸(Çѱ¹µµ½ÃÇàÁ¤ÇÐȸ ³í¹®Áý) : Vol.32 No.2 (201906)